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Poker Tips |
Skillbet
NFL 'Puter' Picks Chart Defined (Page 2)
As you may have guessed these
games don’t occur too often so over the last couple
of years in an effort to increase the betting opportunities
I have tried to incorporate a "favorite" bet and
this is what I came up with.
Below is this different situation:
| Denver
is picked over New Orleans by 4.5
"puter"
picks Denver by 8 (Overlay of 3.5)
Yards per play Advantage
= Denver
First downs Advantage = Denver
Results:
DN 34
NO 13
(The red diamond reflects
the 21 point difference)
Over the past 5 years,
this “shape” and a 3 point overlay has
been a winner over 70% of the time.
(I used old data to
test this for the additional 3 years)
Blue
= First Downs
Pink
= Yards/Play +5 (Adding 5 spreads the plot out and
makes it easier to read)
Yellow
= Predicted Score
Green
= Betting Line
Red
= Results
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