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Skillbet
NFL 'Puter' Picks Chart Defined
Finally the preseason
has begun. We have FOOTBALL. Well almost anyway. I’ve
started to set up my spreadsheets for this season,
and I hope to have another year as successful as the
last five were.
www.Skillbet.net has agreed to post
my predictions this year, and add a handy donation
button if anyone feels I deserve some renumeration
for my efforts. Over the last five years I have posted
better than a 70% win rate.
Of course there are a couple of drawbacks:
I don’t pick many games. Three games on any
given weekend is allot. I don’t start picking
games until Week 4. Besides the win rate, there is
one more major advantage. Once I have a good sample,
I can reliably pick games two weeks in advance. This
allows you to take advantage of the skewed two week
future lines.
Below, and on the following pages, is
an example of ‘puter’s prognostications:
| Okay
this is a game from Dec 13, 2004. The numbers
aren’t really important. The shapes of the
line are the indicators. All of the numbers are
based on the average deviation of the team’s
results versus their opponents average.
Basically if Team A scores
45 points vs Team B but Team B
allows an average of 50 points per game, Team
A’s power
rating vs Team B would be -10%. These game power
ratings
are then averaged to get an over all offensive
power rating for
each team. A defensive power rating is calculated
in the same way,
then the team averages are adjusted to get the
plots on the right.
The stats reflected
in the graph are: (The numbers have little meaning.
We are looking at the shape.)
Blue
= First Downs
Pink
= Yards/Play +5 (Adding 5 spreads the plot out
and makes it easier to read)
Yellow
= Predicted Score
Green
= Betting Line
Red
= Results
The Dog is always
listed first, so in this example KC is a 2.5
dog to TN.
'puter' picks
KC by 1 (Overlay = 3.5)
Yards per play Advantage = KC
First downs Advantage = KC
Results: KC 49
TN 38.
Over the past
5 years, this “shape” and a 5 point
overlay has been a winner over 80% of the time.
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The more detailed charts that have all the picks
on the have tiny print on them and you might want
to download this magnifying glass that I find very
useful -->> Virtual
Magnifying glass
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